Wikileaks Leaks BAG Archives: Australia Related (Part-5)

1074
6/10/2009 22:19
09CANBERRA545
Embassy Canberra
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CANBERRA 000545 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2019 TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, AS

SUBJECT: GILLARD: ON TRACK TO BECOME AUSTRALIA'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER

REF: A) 08 CANBERRA 609 B) CANBERRA 167 C) CANBERRA 305 Classified By: CDA Daniel A. Clune for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Described by her many supporters as "smart, tough, loyal, and the best parliamentary performer in the Australian Labor Party (ALP)," Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard - who visits Washington later this month - has positioned herself as the heir apparent to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd as ALP leader (ref A). Part of Rudd's inner circle, she has handled a combined workplace relations and education portfolio with confidence and ability. Gillard has had a good year. She successfully shepherded through Parliament the Government's key workplace relations reform bill in March and she is overseeing the Government's investment in every school in Australia. Gillard, a product of the ALP Left in the state of Victoria, has shifted towards the political center since Rudd became ALP leader and is now a strong supporter of the Australia-US Alliance and Israel. Although she is still seen as a leftist by key right-wing union powerbrokers, that is not likely to stop her from succeeding Rudd as the next leader of the ALP. END SUMMARY

THE GANG OF FOUR

2. (C/NF) With Treasurer Wayne Swan and Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner, Gillard is part of Rudd's inner circle, a group collectively known as "the gang of four." She is a member of the National Security Committee of Cabinet and when Rudd is out of the country, or on leave, Gillard is Acting Prime Minister. Labor insiders speak admiringly of her ability to understand issues quickly and of her negotiating toughness. Unlike Rudd, however, whose brittle temperament and micromanagement have come under fire, Gillard is seen by most we've spoken with as a good manager. She oversees one of the better-managed offices in the Government and her staff seem very loyal. Conservative columnist Janet Albrechtson - no friend of the ALP - says of Gillard: "most people I've spoken to are of a firm view that Gillard is far more engaging and impressive than the dour Prime Minister."

A GOOD LISTENER WITH AN EVEN DISPOSITION

3. (C/NF) Gillard listens carefully to advice. Kim Beazley, the former Defence Minister and Leader of the Labor Party, told Charge that Gillard listened intently when she met with him to learn his views on national security policy and the alliance with the U.S. The next day, Beazley recounted, he was startled to hear her in a radio interview repeating many of the things he had told her the day before. Unlike the Prime Minister and many other members of the Government, who have been criticized for occasional emotional outbursts, Gillard's demeanor is always controlled. A member of her protective detail told Charge that he was with her constantly for several months and never saw her mistreat staff or even raise her voice, rare behavior for ministers, he commented.

A STAR AT QUESTION TIME

4. (C/NF) Gillard is almost unanimously viewed as the Government's best parliamentary performer. She is a superior debater to Rudd, who gets bogged down in bureaucratic jargon and tends to speak for too long. In Parliamentary Question Time, it is evident that ALP MPs enjoy hearing Gillard more than Rudd. She enjoys taunting the Opposition but, as one Qthan Rudd. She enjoys taunting the Opposition but, as one journalist noted, "the only problem is getting her off the corpse." Late last year, in a widely publicized exchange, Gillard pummeled Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (who was under pressure in a Treasury portfolio she has since relinquished). Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull later described Gillard as "very nasty" and "vicious." A visiting U.S. political scientist noted after watching Question Time that the Opposition normally heckled Government speakers but in stark contrast, they were completely silent when Gillard was on her feet.

A LEFT-WINGER NOW A PRAGMATIST

5. (C/NF) Many believe that Rudd, after he became ALP leader in December 2006, did not give Gillard the Treasury portfolio (the normal portfolio for a deputy leader) because she was from the Victorian Socialist Left faction - traditionally the most radical faction in the ALP. Gillard recognizes that to become Prime Minister, she must move to the Center, and show her support for the Alliance with the United States. Albrechtson, who attended the June 2008 Australian-American Leadership Dialogue in Washington with Gillard, wrote that Gillard's speech "could have been given by the Howard Government." Last week, in a speech to the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) national conference, Gillard defended the Government's workplace relations reforms and splashed cold water on union demands for further changes. Although she was heckled by some of the attendees and publicly chided by union leaders, two former leaders of the ACTU defended Gillard's in the press and her public stance against "union radicalism" is likely to be popular with the Australian public.

6. (C/NF) The ALP Right in Gillard's home state of Victoria are not convinced that she is a transformed moderate. Some Victorian right faction members tell us they are looking for a Gillard alternative - although they admit there is no one at present. Beyond Victoria, Gillard has earned the high regard of the powerful right faction within the New South Wales ALP. ALP state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite, a key right faction powerbroker, told us June 3 that Gillard's remarkable message discipline and shrewd management of key portfolios has earned her the respect of virtually all NSW ALP members. We heard a similar message from NSW labor union contacts, who told ConGen Sydney over lunch May 20 that Gillard appears to be Rudd's heir apparent. Thistlethwaite said the NSW right faction would probably challenge Gillard if they had someone of her "caliber," but he admitted they did not. Ambitious young MPs and former Union leaders Bill Shorten and Greg Combet are routinely mentioned as possible future prime ministers, but Thistlethwaite said that neither one is in any real position to challenge Gillard. More focused on the next election, party powerbrokers have not had any serious conversations about a Rudd successor, according to Thistlethwaite.

PRO-ISRAEL

7. (C/NF) Gillard has thrown off the baggage of being from what one analyst called the "notoriously anti-Israel faction" of the ALP. As Acting Prime Minister in late December 2008, Gillard was responsible for negotiating the Government's position on Israel's incursion into Gaza. Left-wing ALP MPs, a group to which Gillard used to belong, wanted her to take a harder line against Israel. Instead, she said Hamas had broken the ceasefire first by attacking Israel - a stance welcomed by Israel's supporters in Australia. MP Michael Danby, one of two Jewish members of Parliament and a strong supporter of Israel, told us that after the Gaza statement he had a new appreciation of Gillard's leadership within the ALP (ref B). Israeli Ambassador Yuval Rotem told us that Gillard has gone out of her way to build a relationship with Israel and that she asked him to arrange an early opportunity to visit. He will accompany Gillard and a delegation of Australian officials (including newly-appointed Minister Mark Arbib and Liberal Party heavyweights former Treasurer Peter Costello and Chris Pyne, Manager of Opposition Business in the House) to a meeting of the Australia-Israel Leadership Forum later this month.

LABOR REFORM PASSES

8. (C/NF) On March 20, the ALP's reform of Australia's Q8. (C/NF) On March 20, the ALP's reform of Australia's workplace relations laws passed (ref C). Gillard consulted broadly with business and the unions in drafting the legislation so that when the new law was finally introduced in Parliament, there was little left for either side to criticize. When independent senators in Parliament tried to soften a pro-labor provision in the legislation, Gillard stood her ground, and forced them to back down. Her tenacity in defense of workers' rights did not go unnoticed. Right-wing ALP MP Richard Marles, a former official with the ACTU, told us recently that Gillard "hasn't put a foot wrong" since becoming Deputy Prime Minister.

9. (C/NF) Gillard also managed to win the admiration of big business in the workplace relations consultation process. Katie Lahey, CEO of the Business Council of Australia (an umbrella organization representing Australia's 100 largest firms) told Charge in March that Gillard was well respected by executives thanks to remarkable outreach and a "genuine" willingness to listen. While making her rounds with executives in the lead-up to the workplace relations law, Lahey said Gillard made you feel "as if there were nobody else in the room." Executives unsurprisingly found items in the law with which they disagreed, but broadly say that they were adequately consulted.

THE EDUCATION REVOLUTION

10. (SBU) In his election campaign, Rudd promised an "education revolution," to improve education and boost productivity and international competitiveness. Despite the opposition of the teachers' unions and elements within the ALP Left, Gillard has supported a voucher system for vocational education and performance pay for teachers. She has also invited New York Education Chancellor Joel Klein to Australia. The Rudd Government's second big economic stimulus package, passed in February, provided money for infrastructure upgrades for every school, public and private, in Australia. While this funding may improve educational outcomes, the political benefit for ALP politicians will be immediate: in the next twelve months, each school will have a ceremony celebrating the investment, presided over by the local ALP politician.

THE FRONT RUNNER

11. (C/NF) COMMENT: All the ALP MPs we have spoken to have enormous respect for Gillard. However, as one ALP Right MP told us, choosing a leader from the Left would be a massive cultural change for the ALP. Don Farrell, the right-wing union powerbroker from South Australia told us Gillard is "campaigning for the leadership" and at this point is the front-runner to succeed Rudd, conceding that the Right did not yet have an alternative. Agriculture Minister Tony Burke, one of the early NSW Right backers of the Rudd-Gillard team, confided that Gillard is the clear front runner to succeed Rudd and in the end, the ALP caucus will follow the opinion polls if she is the one the public wants. Two keenly anticipated books on Gillard are expected to be released within the next 12 months (one of them authored by the wife of Beazley's former Chief of Staff). At present, the question of a successor to Rudd is probably two elections away. Several Rudd confidantes have told us that Rudd appreciates Gillard and sees her as a possible PM, but that he wants to avoid anointing her to head off a possible leadership challenge when his poll numbers inevitably sag. The PM's brother Greg told us in April that Rudd wants to ensure that there are viable alternatives to Gillard within the Labor Party to forestall a challenge. Mark Arbib once told us a similar story, though he stressed that Rudd appreciates Gillard's strengths. However, another Rudd advisor told us that while the PM respects Gillard, his reluctance to share power will eventually lead to a falling out, while Gillard will not want to acquiesce in creating potential rivals. In the meantime, Gillard has proven her value to the Prime Minister and we expect her to remain the most important member of the Rudd Government, after the Prime Minister himself. CLUNE


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6/23/2009 6:50
09CANBERRA584
Embassy Canberra
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
09CANBERRA542
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000584 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR INR, PM, AND EAP E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2019 TAGS: AS, PGOV, PINR, MASS

SUBJECT: GREG COMBET: NEW JUNIOR DEFENSE MINISTER

REF: CANBERRA 542 Classified By: POLCOUNS JAMES F. COLE: REASON: 1.4 (B)

Summary ---------

1. (C/NF) Politician and trade unionist Greg Combet has risen quickly in Australia's parliament. First elected to Parliament in the 2007 election that swept the Australian Labor Party (ALP) to victory, he is said to have performed superbly as Parliamentary Secretary for Defense Procurement. In the June 6 cabinet reshuffle (reftel), Prime Minister Kevin Rudd named Combet Minister for Defense Personnel, Materiel and Science and Minister Assisting the Minister for Climate Change. A quiet achiever, Combet looks set to rise still further. While we know little about his views on policy, judging from his previous service on his defense portfolio and Rudd,s tendency to promote individuals he trusts, Combet is certain to religiously and effectively implement Rudd,s defense policies. End summary.

Defense Friendly -----------------

2. (C/NF) Rudd appointed Combet to serve as Parliamentary Secretary for Defense Procurement from December 2007 to February 2009. In this role, Combet developed a strong grasp of the defense portfolio, and he worked well with defense technicians, possibly due to his engineering background and attention to details. After his recent appointment, Combet said that his and new Defense Minister John Faulkner's first priority was building confidence between the government and defense leadership, in part to support the Australian Defense Force (ADF) members in Afghanistan. Dual Portfolios Strengthen Position with Constituents --------------------------------------------- --------

3. (C/NF) In February 2009, Combet was appointed Parliamentary Secretary for Climate Change with a focus on emissions trading, to assist Climate Change Minister Penny Wong, and was involved in negotiations with the coal industry and the unions. In June, Combet publicly noted that his defense and climate change portfolios are important to his constituents. The Hunter region in New South Wales holds military bases and defense industries, is one of Australia's most famous wine-growing areas and is the coal heartland of the state. New South Wales produces around 80 percent of the region's mined coal, providing significant employment in Combet's electorate. Prominent Trade Union Leader -----------------------------

4. (C/NF) Hailing from Labor's left and former head of the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU), Combet was the mastermind of the Labor Party's campaign against Work Choices, an industrial relations act that was a prominent factor in the Howard government's defeat in the 2007 federal election. Combet, previously from Victoria, campaigned in New South Wales for the 2007 Australia federal election and was voted into the House of Representatives for Charlton, as part of the Australian Labor Party's (ALP) 2007 election victory. Combet joined the ACTU in 1993 and served as union Secretary from 1999 to 2007. An effective spokesperson and leader, he coordinated numerous national wage cases to secure pay increases for low-paid Australian workers. Combet rose to prominence in 1998 when he led the union movement in the high profile waterfront dispute. He also championed union Qhigh profile waterfront dispute. He also championed union campaigns that secured employee entitlements for 16,000 workers after the collapse of Ansett airlines, and obtained a multi-billion dollar settlement from the James Hardie company for Australian asbestos victims. He relinquished the ACTU Secretary position to campaign full time in Charlton in the lead up to the federal election. Many Australian observers of labor politics think that the ACTU has lost influence with the Government since Combet left.

Personal Information --------------------

5. (U) Combet was born on April 28, 1958 in Sydney. He earned a bachelors degree (with honors) in engineering from the University of New South Wales and a bachelors degree in CANBERRA 00000584 002 OF 002 economics and graduate diploma of labor relations and law from the University of Sydney. Early in his career, Combet worked as a coal mining trade assistant and in a range of community organizations. He is a former director of Members Equity Bank (an ACTU backed initiative designed to offer Australian workers low cost loans) and the $30 billion retirement fund Australian Super. Combet is married to Petra Hilsen and has one daughter, one stepdaughter and one stepson.

Comment --------

6. (C/NF) Combet is likely to be welcomed by defense insiders and industry experts given his strong performance on defense procurement and his ability to grasp and manage details of complicated programs. Early on, Combet had the reputation as a union guy, but he quickly proved to be sharp and industry-oriented, proving to his defense colleagues that he was the right guy, for the job. We have been impressed with his intellect and grasp of defense issues. While he was Parliamentary Secretary for Defense Procurement, Combet had a clear direction of his priorities and of which programs should be canceled. He successfully handled a number of controversial issues, including the cancellation of the problematic Seasprite Helicopter program that resulted in the loss of over AUD $1.4 billion (US $1.21 billion) and the well-publicized concerns surrounding the purchase of six Wedgetails, an early warning and control aircraft.

Comment Continued ------------------

7. (C/NF) One of Combet,s colleagues told us that Combet is a straight-forward operator who sometimes is frustrated by daily political machinations. In our interactions, we have found him well-informed and articulate. Although intense and serious in his approach to the issues, he has personal warmth and charm that stand him in good stead with colleagues. Among Australian political insiders, Combet has long been touted as one of the Labor Party,s stars whose ultimate promotion to the Ministry was inevitable. We have found him well-disposed to U.S. visitors, and Combet has indicated he knows the U.S. is Australia's primary partner when it comes to defense. Defense and climate change are two of the most demanding portfolios and require significant attention and intellect. The question remains whether Combet can manage both of them for a sustained period of time or if one portfolio will be handed to someone else. CLUNE


217245
7/20/2009 2:12
09CANBERRA665
Embassy Canberra
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
09CANBERRA542
VZCZCXRO4213RR RUEHPTDE RUEHBY #0665/01 2010212ZNY CCCCC ZZHR 200212Z JUL 09 ZDKFM AMEMBASSY CANBERRATO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1798INFO RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE 6523RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH 4788RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY 4761

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000665 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR INR, PM, AND EAP E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2019 TAGS: AS, PGOV, PINR

SUBJECT: MARK ARBIB: CLOUT-WIELDING ASCENDING LEADER

REF: CANBERRA 542 CANBERRA 00000665 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLCOUNS JAMES F. COLE: REASON 1.4 (B)

Summary --------

1. (C/NF) Labor right-wing powerbroker and political rising star Mark Arbib has made a quick transition from the parliamentary backrooms into the Ministry. In Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's June 6 ministerial reshuffle (reftel), Arbib was promoted to Minister for Employment Participation and the Minister Assisting the Prime Minister on Government Service Delivery. Arbib, the New South Wales (NSW) Labor party's kingmaker, was integral in raising the numbers for Rudd to overthrow Kim Beazley as Australian Labor Party (ALP) leader in 2006. Arbib is a close adviser to Rudd and is his key conduit to the ALP factions. End summary.

Rising Star in the New-Look Rudd Ministry -----------------------------------------

2. (C/NF) Arbib, new to parliament, entered the Senate in July 2008 representing New South Wales. In February 2009, the former NSW ALP Secretary was appointed Parliamentary Secretary for Government Service Delivery, a position within the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. He was promoted to Minister for Employment Participation and the Minister Assisting the Prime Minister on Government Service Delivery in Rudd's June 6 cabinet shake-up. Arbib's role includes assisting with the roll out of the government's infrastructure program and reforming the contracting of employment services. Before being elected, Arbib was the ALP State Secretary of the NSW branch from 2004-2007. He served as Assistant Secretary from 1999-2004, and was the ALP state organizer between 1996-99. Arbib was Acting Employment and Workplace Relations Minister when Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard was recently overseas.

Powerbroker and Adviser -----------------------

3. (C/NF) Widely noted as possessing influence far beyond the ALP Right, Arbib successfully delivered crucial votes in Rudd's December 2006 defeat of Kim Beazley for the ALP leadership. Arbib was a key figure in the ALP's 2007 election campaign, and Rudd thanked Arbib in his victory speech on election night. Arbib had a similar relationship with former NSW Premier Bob Carr who in 2007 described Arbib as "one of the best campaigners in the business". Arbib is said to be loyal to, but frank, with Rudd, and is one of Rudd's closest advisers. Yet, publicly, Arbib has denied being part of Rudd's inner circle. Personal Information ---------------------

4. (C/NF) Arbib was born November 9, 1971 in Sydney. His father was of Libyan heritage and spoke Italian. The elder Arbib moved to Australia in the 1960s and became a property developer. Mark Arbib's mother was born in Sydney, and raised Mark and his brother after their father's death when they were young. Arbib has a Master of Arts in political science and economic history from the University of New South Wales. He is married to Kelli Field. The couple has two daughters, Alexandria, age three, and Charlotte, age one. Arbib is devoted to his children and sensitive that his wife, formerly the chief of staff for a NSW minister, is taking time off her career while their children are young. Arbib and his family live in Sydney.

Comment -------

5. (C/NF) Arbib is an influential factional operator who has forged strong political connections with Rudd. We have been told that Rudd respects Arbib's political expertise, and a contact noted that Arbib is brought into Rudd's inner circle when politically important decisions are made. It has been Qwhen politically important decisions are made. It has been reported in the media that Arbib was involved in meetings which led to changes to the emissions trading scheme and Rudd's decision to embrace a budget deficit. The press has also said that Arbib is the only minister with a close ally as his Parliamentary Secretary, which could enable Arbib and Jason Clare, another newcomer, to make progress on getting public sector projects approved and built. Although Arbib has been in elected office only briefly, his meteoric rise has attracted only minor grumbling in Caucus since he has the talent to back it up. It seems only a matter of time before he moves into the cabinet.

6. (C/NF) Arbib is a tough political operator and CANBERRA 00000665 002.2 OF 002 evidence-based strategic thinker. He understands the mechanics of politics and how the factional system works. He can adeptly frame an issue the public cares about and knows the threshold he needs to hit to get a reaction. In the upcoming ALP national conference, Arbib will be instrumental in keeping factions working constructively together.

Comment Continued ------------------

7. (C/NF) We have found that Arbib is an astute observer and able conversant in the nuts and bolts of U.S. politics. He understands the importance of supporting a vibrant relationship with the U.S. while not being too deferential. We have found him personable, confident and articulate. A strong supporter of the alliance, he has met with us repeatedly throughout his political rise.